Research by pollster Mike Smithson has shown that over half of Leave voters in the June 2016 EU Referendum intend to vote for Theresa May and the Conservatives at the next General Election.
The polling has also shown a resurgence for the Liberal Democrats, who have been using Parliamentary by-elections to hoover up pro-EU votes, even in heavily leave areas. The party have seen themselves position as the party of choice for 20% of Remain voters – a potential 3,220,000 votes, or 800,000 or so more than their showing at the 2015 General Election.
Now, we can do something interesting here; if we take the Leave percentages, and multiply them by 0.52, and the remain percentages by 0.48, it will give is the raw percentages of vote share at a General Election. If one was held, it would give the Tories a comfortable majority of 76. Labour would lose 36 seats, the Tories gain 32, the Liberal Democrats gain two from Labour (Cambridge and Burnley), and the SNP and Plaid Cymru gain one from Labour apiece.
Unfortunately for them, UKIP don’t make any gains whatsoever. This is, however, somewhat representative of their vote share staying more or less unchanged.
Do you know what the most interesting point is?
The prediction shows that in this situation, which is based on what people actually say, the Tories would win it. And with the by-election coming up, and the Tories campaigning there already, Labour should be panicking.