Rumours are arising in the political world of the next Conservative Leader calling a General Election after voting down their own Government. The likelihood is that it will take place on the:
The next Prime Minister, who at the moment is likely to be Boris Johnson, is expected to call a General Election early to secure a personal mandate, and to destroy the Labour Party, which is currently in disarray after the attempted coup against Leader Jeremy Corbyn. The newest Labour MP, Rosena Allin-Khan, who has been in post for just ten days, has been told:
“Keep your phone on, you may be in the new Shadow Cabinet”
The polls are currently predicting a hung parliament, with no feasible coalition formable once party inclinations are taken into account:
The closest combinations under the ICM projections would be a Conservative+DUP+UKIP Government, which would have a cigarette-paper thin majority of 326. It would be an incredibly dangerous prediction though as one bad decision could bring the Government to its knees.
Under the Survation projections, the story is slightly different. This time, a Labour+SNP+Lib Dem+Plaid Cymru+Green Coalition is much more likely, as it would have 331 seats – one more than the current Conservative Government. This would be an extremely difficult thing to manage though, but once coupled with the UK Independence Party (UKIP)’s predicted three seats, there would be more than enough to force the electoral reform that the four junior partners all crave. This could go one of two ways – either Boris Johnson will become Prime Minister and lead one of the most right-wing Governments in living memory, or it could shoot him in the face and give rise to a progressive Government that would radically overhaul the UK and almost entirely scrap the current constitution.
Regardless of the outcome, this is definitely worth watching.