SMO0B: Copeland By-Election

Joe Young - Politics Editor

In this Statistical Modelling on 0 Budget, we’re going to take a look at the Copeland by-election.

This is the first by-election that could see the Tories increase their majority; a semi-marginal, if victorious, the Government would make the unprecedented step of increasing their parliamentary party midterm.

And if you look at the numbers, it’s wholly possible. We’ve taken the average swing of by-elections so far, with the exception of the Batley and Spen by-election due to its nature, and added to that the discrepancy between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn.

These are the predictions we’ve calculated:

These make for some rather incredible reading – the last time a Government increased their majority was the Mitcham and Morden by-election in 1982.

It really does show that it’s all to play for up in Cumbria – with only one candidate announced too, there could be dramatic revelations and developments very shortly.

About Joe Young 316 Articles
Joe Young has been involved with student media for a very long time now, holding posts within The Pulse, and Pulse Radio, as well as the predecessor of The Pulse, Pluto. He is currently Politics Editor of The Pulse, and Head of News of Pulse Radio. In 2016, he won the Media Award for Best Article for his coverage of the Fishergate Shopping Centre bomb scare.

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