In this Statistical Modelling on 0 Budget, we’re going to take a look at the Copeland by-election.
This is the first by-election that could see the Tories increase their majority; a semi-marginal, if victorious, the Government would make the unprecedented step of increasing their parliamentary party midterm.
And if you look at the numbers, it’s wholly possible. We’ve taken the average swing of by-elections so far, with the exception of the Batley and Spen by-election due to its nature, and added to that the discrepancy between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn.
These are the predictions we’ve calculated:
These make for some rather incredible reading – the last time a Government increased their majority was the Mitcham and Morden by-election in 1982.
It really does show that it’s all to play for up in Cumbria – with only one candidate announced too, there could be dramatic revelations and developments very shortly.