In the Conservatives’ 2015 Manifesto, they committed to a review of constituency boundaries, reducing the number of Members of Parliament to 600. Much umbrage was taken to this, as instead of being based on constituency population, it’s instead based on registered electors. As such, the Tories have been accused of trying to create an in-built majority to the House of Commons. Politics isn’t easy to understand – especially statistical politics like this – so Pulse Politics are doing the legwork for you, and finding out how this would affect the UK’s political landscape.
The first place we’ll discuss will be Wales. Unlike England, Wales has its own Boundary Commission, and as such publishes its proposals separately.
The reviews will totally redraw Wales’ electoral map, reducing the number of seats from 40 constituencies to just 29 – over a quarter of Wales’ parliamentary representation is due to be axed.
Interesting constituencies to watch will be the successor to Lib Dem Mark Williams’ Ceredigion constituency, which is being extended to almost double in geographical size, which could cause the seat to be lost to either the Conservatives, or possibly even Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru. In a similar fashion, it could see the demise of the Lib-Con marginal seat of Brecon and Radnorshire – now moved into Brecon, Radnorshire, and Montgomery, taking in part of Lembit Öpik’s former seat of Montgomeryshire – with the Tories now over 15% ahead in Öpik’s former seat.
Plaid could make electoral gains in North Wales, taking the Labour-Plaid marginal of Isle of Anglesey, which is now becoming Isle of Anglesey and Arfon, taking in part of the current held Plaid seat of Arfon.
With every Welsh seat seeing dramatic changes, it’ll be an exciting one to watch in the next General Election. We could see some surprising things – maybe even UKIP claiming their first Welsh constituency.